THE DEBATE – AT 11:35 P.M. ET:  No "Short Takes" tonight because of the debate.  It was more than a three-hour affair, the "Gone With the Wind" of presidential debates.

As I've said many times at Urgent Agenda, the only thing that's important in these debates is who wins.  No policies will change.   Almost all the comments will be forgotten within days.  The Republican Party must thin the herd, and I think that process started tonight.  We're not selecting a president, please remember, we're selecting a candidate for president.  To become president you've got to win.  There's no silver medal, and no one gets "honorable mention."  If you lose there won't be much mention at all.  So selecting the best candidate is absolutely critical.   

I've monitored a number of reactions on the tube and internet, and it is clear that Carly Fiorina had a terrific debate, followed by Marco Rubio.  Trump did reasonably well, but did not dazzle.  Carson seemed to come off a neutral.  The others elicited varying degrees of positive comments, but there was no particular yearning for any one of them.  I did not hear anyone referred to as a real loser.

The question now is who will be helped in the polls.  Will the numbers really change?  I believe that Fiorina will continue to climb upward, as she did after the first debate, when she was relegated to the "junior" table, the debaters who appeared earlier in the evening because of low standing in the polls.  She's a fighter.  She's noticed.  She has that "I want to get behind her" appeal. 

By contrast, people have been surprised that Rubio, who had a good first debate, didn't go anywhere in the polls.  It could be that he just kind of disappeared after the debate.  I doubt it that will happen this time.  He's got to break out of the double-digit pack.

I've felt for some time that Donald Trump will reach a ceiling and go no further.  His so-so performance tonight may mark that moment.  I'm guessing that Ben Carson, who apparently does terrific retail campaigning between debates, will hold his own.

(Pausing now to do more checking on the internet.)

The polls we're starting to see are online polls, which are not scientifically based.  I generally don't report them, as anyone can participate.  Commentary starting to appear confirms the impressions in the paragraphs above.  We'll have to wait a day or more for the full, carefully conducted polls.

September 16, 2015